Fall Market Preview

For the first time all year, my iPhone weatherman shows a forecast with lots of 80 degree temps and even some 90 degree temps. Remember those summer nights from previous summers, like from all of the previous summers that came before this one? Those were the nights where we’d walk outside after dark, after spending some time in our conditioned homes, and the late night heat would be as potent as the midday heat? Remember then, after those sultry nights, when we’d wake in the morning, early like, and the heat would still be there, waiting for us, suffocating us? Dew Point was the enemy then, but this summer, have we ever gone to bed hot and woken up hot? I know I haven’t. But that’s what it’s going to be like in the coming Ice Age.

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Though the iPhone says it’ll be hot, this morning still smacks of early fall. Everything is green, yes, but flowers are showing their age and grass is starting to pale. There’s a fall on the horizon, and if you wish to understand Lake Geneva at all times, then you must understand it in the fall. There’s a distinct timeline of market events in the fall. The fall is for orchards and shopping for school clothes, sure, but it’s also for real estate at Lake Geneva. A friend of mine at Chicago Title told me just this week that new orders have slowed some, but that existing orders are still high as buyers race to close in time to enjoy a bit of summer and the entirety of fall. Contracts are slowing, which should mean we’re concerned, right?

Obviously not. Do I look concerned? I’m not, because the rhythm of a Lake Geneva fall involves a brief slow down right about now. The reason for this temporary pause has everything to do with kids. While kids are not a requirement of enjoying Lake Geneva, they do tend to be part of this equation for many people. While kids prepare for a return to school, parents are busily rushing from this and to that, buying new shoes and soccer cleats, scheduling doctor’s appointments and dentist visits. There is much to do right now, and Lake Geneva will be on hold for many families who are currently distracted by the real world.

What happens next is as obvious as what is happening now. Kids return to school. Young kids to the elementary, older kids to the high school, and older kids who are sort-of adults, to college. Once the household has returned to a school schedule, that’s when Lake Geneva resurfaces. For families who saw the summer come and go with nary a nod towards Wisconsin and the lake, they will feel as though they’ve missed out. Why would they feel this way, when they have city or suburban luxury to pad their September existence? Um, because the city and the suburbs are lame on the weekends? That’s exactly right, so these families will know that they’ve missed out, and they’ll consider sourcing a remedy to all that tedium.

They’ll come to Lake Geneva, during weekdays when kids are in school, or they’ll swing up on weekends, when they get a taste of what they’ve just missed. This is why the fall market for buyers is always active; because people realize that they’ve just missed yet another summer. The fall market will be solid this year, as it usually is, as buyers will chase down their summer dreams amid browned leaves. Buyers will be active through Thanksgiving, with most buyers making their moves between Labor Day and the end of October. The truly motivated buyers will never leave the market, and they will watch for new inventory or new price reductions, and they’re as apt to buy in July as they are in December. But the masses, they’ll be buying over the next 75 days.

For sellers, this should be good news. Sellers are always concerned about “missing the market”. They think, in somewhat antiquated theory, that the market has ceased sometime around Labor Day. They are wrong when they think that, so sellers be aware that you have plenty of time left in 2014 to sell your property. Many sellers are reducing their prices now, and other sellers will be coming to market after spending one last summer at the lake. This phenomenon is rather common, as sellers who are a bit undecided in the spring will many times put off the decision to sell until they can have one last go around. Of course, building inventory that way can backfire, as sellers who consider selling in the spring can also end up keeping their home after they realize just how great a Lake Geneva summer is. Nothing makes you love it more than the thought of leaving it.

Above, 88 North Lakeshore Drive. 230+ front feet of lakefront, 5+ acres of wooded privacy, $5.9MM.

About the Author

I'm David Curry. I write this blog to educate and entertain those who subscribe to the theory that Lake Geneva, Wisconsin is indeed the center of the real estate universe. When I started selling real estate 27 years ago I did so of a desire to one day dominate the activity in the Lake Geneva vacation home market. With over $800,000,000 in sales since January of 2010, that goal is within reach. If I can help you with your Lake Geneva real estate needs, please consider me at your service. Thanks for reading.

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