The inventory is growing now, and we should really add some good product over the next two weeks. The selling season traditionally begins the week after Super Bowl Sunday, which, by my calculations, is next week. I'm watching the inventory closely, and some listing activity at Abbey Springs has caught my eye. Abbey Springs, fresh off a stellar 2009, bolted into the new year with two quick sales in early January. I wrote at the time that the success of Abbey Springs this year would depend on the inventory added, and would depend largely on sellers willingness to recognize that the flurry of activity during the summer of 2009 may very well have been a fluke of sorts. Not that Abbey Springs isn't worth your time, because it most certainly is, but because the volume increase was more a function of pent up demand than the function of a robust market.
If you'd like to know what I keep opining about when I talk of the quality of inventory and its ability to sway a market, consider the month of January in Abbey Springs. During the month, seven new properties were listed in the association. (Remember, all of these stats are taken from the MLS, and while deemed reliable, are not guaranteed.) If we look a little deeper into the seven new listings, we should be able to have a nice idea where the inventory trend is heading as it related to Abbey Springs. Of the seven new listings this month, five were properties that had very recently been on the market and expired after the listing ended. In other words, five of the seven weren't really "new" listings, but regurgitated properties from the prior year. Even so, if those stale properties hit the market at newly established prices, they stand a very good chance of selling this spring. Remember, Abbey Springs was selling last year at fairly stiff prices, and outside of a few exceptions, buyers weren't able to buy for the sort of discounts that might have been available last year in other parts of our broader market.
The five listings that failed to sell last year are back on the market as "new", and in my opposite-of-humble opinion, they should be returned to the market at some sort of discount over last years prices. After all, if they didn't sell last year, it's reasonable to think they may have been just a touch overpriced. The average percentage off the previous ask for these "new" listings? .68% That's right, there's a decimal in front of the 6. So there has been an average decrease in asking price of a whopping two-thirds of one percent. Buyers must be taking off work to speed up to see these "new" listings as I write...
I'm not picking on Abbey Springs, I'm just using their January market changes as a way to judge what's happening in the overall market. Stubborn sellers are the bane of bargain hunting buyers everywhere, but in Geneva, the striking differences between stubborn sellers and nonchalant buyers makes for one frustrated Realtor. So in light of this possibly annoying pricing trend, what's a buyer to do? Well, I think you know how I feel about suburban and city summers, so that ought to answer the question right there. The reality is, buyers would do well to be active in this market, while seller apathy still exists to some degree, and work to achieve the best deal possible. Negotiate the pants off of the deal, then, when the seller is spent and the numbers seem disagreeable, just try to picture a Saturday morning where instead of driving to a Starbucks with your kids, you grab a couple fishing poles and walk down to see if these fish I keep talking about really do exist. See you at the lake.
